Home Performance Methodology Pricing
+395.0u
Combined P&L
3,683
Total Bets
64
Trading Days
2.37
Pro Sharpe
~8.3
Tape Sharpe
-141.1u
Pro Max DD

Live Pro Channel

Campaign accumulation detection · 3,178 bets · 64 days · SR 30.6% · POT +7.1%

Weekly P&L Breakdown

WeekNWinsLossesSR%POT%P&LCumulative
W04 (Jan)120120.0%-100.0%-12.0u-12.0u
W052426811836.5%+35.6%+86.1u+74.1u
W06240629938.5%+7.0%+16.8u+90.9u
W073007216830.0%+18.3%+54.8u+145.7u
W084149820432.4%+12.2%+50.7u+196.4u
W093346417327.0%-8.8%-29.4u+167.0u
W103468417931.9%+26.3%+91.0u+258.0u
W113988620229.9%-2.2%-8.7u+249.3u
W124026621223.7%-28.2%-113.3u+136.0u
W133167016030.4%+28.7%+90.6u+226.6u

6 of 10 weeks profitable. Worst week: -113.3u (W12). Best week: +91.0u (W10). Recovery: +90.6u (W13).

By Signal Tier

TierNSR%POT%P&L
STRONG1,08033.9%+11.6%+132.3u
CONFIDENT2,03628.4%+4.7%+94.9u

STRONG delivers 4.1x the POT of CONFIDENT — 69.8% of profit from 35.9% of volume.

By Streak Conviction

ConvictionNSR%POT%P&L
ELITE (streak 7+)61839.7%+37.9%+246.9u
STANDARD (<7)2,38627.9%+0.7%+16.7u

ELITE carries the system: +209.9u from 618 signals at 34.0% POT. 2x multiplier is data-justified.

Price Band Performance (Heatmap)

Colour intensity reflects POT%. Core zone $3-8 generates 99% of total P&L.

$3–4
+11.0%
53.4% SR
N=698 · +76.8u
$4–6
+8.4%
36.2% SR
N=984 · +82.4u
$6–8
+12.6%
25.4% SR
N=516 · +65.2u
$8–10
Mixed
Dead zone
$10–12
+56.4%
Longshot value
High variance
$12–20
Blocked
Gate excluded
-76.7% POT

Each-Way Enhancement

ComponentP&LNotes
Win-only+227.2uPublished basis
Place-only+486.0u52.9% place rate
Combined EW+707.8u3.1x win-only

Place component is 2.1x win return. More resilient during drawdown periods.

95% Confidence Interval (POT)

Bootstrap CI from 10,000 resamples. Observed POT: +7.1%.

-5% -1.6% +7.5% +16.9% +20%

Lower bound near zero reflects high-variance longshot-influenced strategy. With more data, interval will narrow.

Live Tape Alerts

A+ microstructure overlay · 505 bets · 61 days · SR 56.0% · POT +33.2% · Sharpe ~8.3

H1 — Jan 23 to Feb 21

Bets241
Strike Rate53.3%
POT+23.8%
P&L+57.3u
vs

H2 — Feb 21 to Apr 2

Bets242
Strike Rate58.0%
POT+46.5%
P&L+112.6u

H2 outperforms H1 across all metrics. The edge is strengthening, not decaying. This is the key signal for system durability.

Price Band Performance

All 6 price bands profitable. No exclusions warranted.

$1–2
+1.6%
75.0% SR
N=48 · +0.8u
$2–3
+42.9%
78.6% SR
N=120 · +51.4u
$3–4
+43.7%
58.1% SR
N=107 · +46.8u
$4–5
+14.3%
39.3% SR
N=93 · +13.3u
$5–6
+35.8%
33.3% SR
N=57 · +20.4u
$6–8
+64.1%
32.5% SR
N=58 · +37.2u

Risk Profile

MetricValue
Max Drawdown-18.2u
P&L / DD Ratio9.3x
Weeks Profitable9 of 10
Wilson CI (SR)[50.4%, 60.9%]
Breakeven SR25.1%
Edge Above BE+30.6pp

System Properties

PropertyValue
Avg Price$3.98
State100% DRIFT
Grade RequiredA+ only
Overlap with ProZero
StakingFlat 1u win
Daily Volume~8 alerts

Shadow ML Predictions

5-model ensemble · Shadow mode since 15 Mar 2026 · Deployment gate: 4 weeks positive

Live Shadow Results (15–28 Mar 2026)

MetricBacktest (Walk-Forward)Live ShadowStatus
Resolved Bets156
Strike Rate55.7%37.2%MONITOR
POT+97.6%+69.2%ON TRACK
P&L+108.0uPOSITIVE
Avg Price$4.10$5.31

SR divergence explained by higher avg prices in live ($5.31 vs $4.10). POT strongly positive. Expected launch: April/May 2026.