Complete breakdown of every metric, every dimension, every week. Everything a sceptic needs to see — because that's exactly who we built this for.
| Week | N | Wins | Losses | SR% | POT% | P&L | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W04 (Jan) | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -12.0u | -12.0u |
| W05 | 242 | 68 | 118 | 36.5% | +35.6% | +86.1u | +74.1u |
| W06 | 240 | 62 | 99 | 38.5% | +7.0% | +16.8u | +90.9u |
| W07 | 300 | 72 | 168 | 30.0% | +18.3% | +54.8u | +145.7u |
| W08 | 414 | 98 | 204 | 32.4% | +12.2% | +50.7u | +196.4u |
| W09 | 334 | 64 | 173 | 27.0% | -8.8% | -29.4u | +167.0u |
| W10 | 346 | 84 | 179 | 31.9% | +26.3% | +91.0u | +258.0u |
| W11 | 398 | 86 | 202 | 29.9% | -2.2% | -8.7u | +249.3u |
| W12 | 402 | 66 | 212 | 23.7% | -28.2% | -113.3u | +136.0u |
| W13 | 316 | 70 | 160 | 30.4% | +28.7% | +90.6u | +226.6u |
6 of 10 weeks profitable. Worst week: -113.3u (W12). Best week: +91.0u (W10). Recovery: +90.6u (W13).
| Tier | N | SR% | POT% | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRONG | 1,080 | 33.9% | +11.6% | +132.3u |
| CONFIDENT | 2,036 | 28.4% | +4.7% | +94.9u |
STRONG delivers 4.1x the POT of CONFIDENT — 69.8% of profit from 35.9% of volume.
| Conviction | N | SR% | POT% | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE (streak 7+) | 618 | 39.7% | +37.9% | +246.9u |
| STANDARD (<7) | 2,386 | 27.9% | +0.7% | +16.7u |
ELITE carries the system: +209.9u from 618 signals at 34.0% POT. 2x multiplier is data-justified.
Colour intensity reflects POT%. Core zone $3-8 generates 99% of total P&L.
| Component | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Win-only | +227.2u | Published basis |
| Place-only | +486.0u | 52.9% place rate |
| Combined EW | +707.8u | 3.1x win-only |
Place component is 2.1x win return. More resilient during drawdown periods.
Bootstrap CI from 10,000 resamples. Observed POT: +7.1%.
Lower bound near zero reflects high-variance longshot-influenced strategy. With more data, interval will narrow.
H2 outperforms H1 across all metrics. The edge is strengthening, not decaying. This is the key signal for system durability.
All 6 price bands profitable. No exclusions warranted.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max Drawdown | -18.2u |
| P&L / DD Ratio | 9.3x |
| Weeks Profitable | 9 of 10 |
| Wilson CI (SR) | [50.4%, 60.9%] |
| Breakeven SR | 25.1% |
| Edge Above BE | +30.6pp |
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Avg Price | $3.98 |
| State | 100% DRIFT |
| Grade Required | A+ only |
| Overlap with Pro | Zero |
| Staking | Flat 1u win |
| Daily Volume | ~8 alerts |
| Metric | Backtest (Walk-Forward) | Live Shadow | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved Bets | — | 156 | — |
| Strike Rate | 55.7% | 37.2% | MONITOR |
| POT | +97.6% | +69.2% | ON TRACK |
| P&L | — | +108.0u | POSITIVE |
| Avg Price | $4.10 | $5.31 | — |
SR divergence explained by higher avg prices in live ($5.31 vs $4.10). POT strongly positive. Expected launch: April/May 2026.